Article:
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Bernhard Heim, Marc Joosten, Aurel v. Richthofen & Florian Rupp (2018): On the Process and
Economics of Land Settlement in Oman: Mathematical Modeling and Reasoning in Urban Planning
and Design, HOMO OECONOMICUS, First Online: 08 May 2018.

Volume 35, Issue 1–2, pp 1–30

DOI: 10.1007/s41412-018-0066-7
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41412-018-0066-7

online access: https://rdcu.be/NNyG 

Abstract:
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The Sultanate of Oman organizes a peculiar land allocation system by lottery. Combined with
governmental loans this system is intended to provide house ownership for male and female
nationals. Active land-management measures such as incentives or taxation do not exist. The
process can be described as an ideal market. As observed in empirical studies the resulting
settlement remains incomplete and inefficient, which leads to an overall unsustainable land-use.
The paper develops an agent-based land-settlement simulation based on cellular automata. The
simulation describes the agents and their motivation. It is calibrated with a real-estate price
index compiled for Muscat Capital Area for the first time. The simulation allows discussion of
four scenarios: Status quo, negative, positive and combined land-management measures. The status
quo scenario reveals that the original intention of the land allocation program as part of the
welfare system in Oman is not attained. On the contrary, the present system without additional
management fuels private land speculation that rapidly excludes those in need and benefits a
few. The alternative scenarios of negative, positive and combined land-management measures
support policies for a fair and sustainable settlement process.


Keywords:
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collective decision-making, simulations in economics, settlement dynamics, housing in Oman