Article:
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B. Heim, M. Joosten, A. v. Richthofen & F. Rupp (2018): Land-Allocation and Clan-Formation in
Modern Residential Developments in Oman, City, Territory and Architecture, 5:8,
DOI: 10.1186/s40410-018-0084-6.

published online: 20 Sept 2018

URL: https://cityterritoryarchitecture.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40410-018-0084-6


Abstarct:
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Affordable housing with fair and transparent land-allocation measures is a challenge for
many countries. The Sultanate of Oman solves this issue by means of land-allocation lotteries
in which male and female citizens can participate in order to win a parcel of a new housing
area. Besides supporting those in financial need the lottery aims to mix the separate tribes
of Oman and thus contribute to the nation building of a modern society. In an earlier work,
we showed that there must be severe doubts about the economic support aspect as it seems that
the current lottery, without additional measures, fuels private land speculation, see Heim et
al. (Homo Oecon 35:1–30, 2018). This article studies the emergent phenomenon of clan formation
within the specific land-allocation system of Oman with a new mathematical and computational
approach of agent-based modelling. This model is used to base the criticism to the system on
scientific evidence. Both the method (clan formation exemplified as agent-based model) and
findings (simulated agents and real-world behaviour) advance the discussion on how to mitigate
some of the negative effects associated with the current land allocation system. To do so, we
discuss the current state and criticism around this aspect of urbanisation in Oman. We study
the spatial mixing of the tribes and the possibility of clan formation in modern Omani settlements
in particular Muscat Capital Area. We see emergent phenomena arising from the agent-based model
that matches real world behaviour leading to negative effects such as partial and incomplete
land development, tribal clustering and real-estate market distortion. The agent-based model is
used to discuss alternative scenarios under which tribal clan formation is used to generate a
fairer and more complete settlement process in Oman to ensure the intended outcomes of Oman’s
land-allocation lottery system.

Keywords:
Collective decision-making, Simulations in economics, Settlement dynamics, Clan-formation,
Housing in Oman